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Are Universities Over-Estimating Future Numbers?

Changes to the tuition fees of the last decade have tempered the desire of many to go to university. Some on both sides of the house believe that application numbers were unsustainable, especially considering the rise of soft degrees. There was some concern that the value of the degree was dropping thanks to too many graduates. However, the tuition fee reforms did not temper those desires a great deal. Universities all over the country are making plans to continue expanding their courses, student facilities and accommodation.

 

The OfS State of the Universities

OfS has called on universities to revise their projected numbers for future growth. In a recent report, they accused Higher Education institutes of being “over-optimistic”. It relates to projections of student applications between now and 2023. It is a time of uncertainty due to Brexit and economic concerns all over the world.

There was some good news for our higher education institutes though. Their financial health is said to be in a “reasonable” condition in general. However, this proclamation came with a warning that this generally positive state hides some of the more severe problems of the outliers. Overall, there may be a deteriorating situation over the next four years or so.

 

The Figures and Why There is Concern

On average, universities forecast a 10% student number growth between 2019 and 2023, an increase of around 171,000 full timers, of which:

  • 56,000 will be students from overseas (a 20% increase)
  • 78,000 will be domestic and EU students (a 5% decrease)

The OfS has described these figures as “over-ambitious” bearing in mind the current climate. They are calling on universities to look again at figures and revise accordingly in line with economic performance and with ongoing uncertainty over issues such as Brexit.

Not that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union is the only issue at play. The Augar Review is looking at higher education funding and is likely to propose sweeping changes to how we approach higher education. There is a move to push non-academic students away from universities and towards a new wave of technical colleges to address skills shortages. This too could impact projected university student numbers in the coming years.

 

Prepare For Departmental Closures

The financial situation is not precarious, but the OfS feels there is a financial timebomb just waiting to go off. The two issues already mentioned could fundamentally impact university income. A third issue is faculty pensions. With a number of faculty retiring and the growing average age of the population, the financial costs of pension contributions is of immediate concern.

Should the worst happen, universities are being encouraged to have develop contingency plans for students to move to another course or university, but it seems few departments have such a plan.